Monday, January 31, 2005

2005 Macworld Expo SF Keynote part 3

Wow, it's not until part 3 that you get my notes on the actual keynote. Well, I suppose part 1 was really more of a prequel. Too bad!

Normally, when Steve Jobs first comes out on stage, he thanks everyone for being there and notes what a beautiful day it is in San Francisco. He didn't do that this year, since it was a cold, rainy and pretty miserable day (another reason why I didn't show up super early to wait outside). Instead he noted that this was the first keynote to be projected in High Definition (HD). And all of us sitting in the overflow room watching a non-HD broadcast could care less. As will all of those who watch the streaming webcast and are seeing a "buffering" message every few minutes. Well, best to get the least exciting announcements out of the way at the beginning of the keynote instead of the end. So he then gave us all an update on the retail Apple Stores: 21 stores now open; 1 million visitors per week; newest store in London. The new London store did look pretty nice. If you're ever there, go visit.

An update on the iMac G5's progress was next, in which he proclaimed that it "gets rid of all the cables." Maybe in the promotional pictures it does. Maybe if you order it with the optional Bluetooth module direct from the online Apple Store and add an AirPort Extreme card and wireless mouse and keyboard and hook your printer up to your wireless router. But for the rest of us, there's actually just as many cords as usual. You have to hook up your iPod, right? He noted that it's gotten some great reviews in the press; and deservedly so, I think. But don't mention the Wall Street Journal's Walt "I Haven't Met An Apple Product I Haven't Gushed Over" Mossberg. Although he didn't cite specific sales figures, Jobs noted it is now Apple's highest-selling Mac.

Moving on to OS X, Jobs noted that there are now 14 million active users and "the transition to OS X is complete." Last year he said "the transition to OS X is over." Apparently the difference between 'complete' and 'over' is 4.5 million users. Also, that's still only 59% of the estimated installed Macintosh base. My prediction for 2006: The transition to OS X will be 'finished.'

We were told back in June 2004 that the next version of OS X would arrive in the first half of 2005. And since we're now IN the first half of 2005, I was hoping we'd find out a more specific timeframe. Unfortunately, we didn't. Which I presume rules out January, February and March as possible ship dates. Jobs' demo of the unfinished system upgrade showed one reason why there's no official ship month yet: it crashed.

It was obvious from the beginning that there would be a GarageBand demo (and presumably an update), since a guitar could be seen on the stage. So it was no surprise that the entire iLife suite was updated (except iTunes, which lives in its own, exciting iPod world). Now that we have a G5 at home and a videocamera, I was actually interested in what the updates would be. iPhoto 5 got plenty of applause, especially for a demo showing how easy it was to straighten a photo with the horizon. And I took delight in the fact that U2's "Sweetest Thing" was used in the iDVD demo. In fact, when Bono sang "My love, she throws me like a rubber ball," the home video footage actually showed someone throwing a rubber ball. John Mayer (who Jobs reminded us many times was up for two Grammies) returned to show off GarageBand 2, specifically its new music notation capability. One interesting feature is that you can manually alter the notes directly on the notation by dragging them up and down the clefs. Of course, after Jobs did that to a recording Mayer made, it sounded incredibly awful, as expected. I can imagine GarageBand 2's advertising slogan: "Now it's even easier to make horrible music!"

iWork, Apple's incredibly late successor to the aging AppleWorks, was a welcome announcement. It's different in a couple of ways. First, it doesn't have as many varied capabilities as AppleWorks (spreadsheet, database, drawing, painting). Also, it is not bundled with new Macs. Pages, the "word processing with style" application looked more like an easy-to-use page layout application. The funniest part, though, was when Jobs noted that it would include 40 templates, a "new concept." Yeah, because no one has ever included pre-built templates with their apps ... except maybe Adobe, Microsoft, and, oh, Apple, among others. Although a new Apple-created 'Office' software bundle has been predicted since Keynote 1.0 was released, no one predicted the low price of $79. (A lot cheaper than the $400 it would cost to get Microsoft's Word & PowerPoint)

Similarly, although rumors were rampant that a cheap, headless Mac would be introduced at Macworld, there were still plenty of surprises. First, it was not pizza-box shaped. Believe me, I know pizza-box shaped. I used a Quadra 605 from 1994-1999 and it even opened like a pizza box. Instead, the Mac mini is shaped more like a Nintendo GameCube. Plus, it's shockingly small. Apple continually does injustice to its products by photographing them in a white, Matrix-y void. It is impossible to realize how small this G4 computer is until you see it in person. And when Jobs held up the box by its little handle, the crowd was blown away. I've seen bigger (less fashionable) purses.

Normally, the Mac mini would be the 'one more thing' at a keynote. But it actually got short shrift in keynote time for the new iPod shuffle, which is like a Bizarro Apple product. Normally, Apple creates something that is innovative and feature-rich. PC users ignore it, citing its high price tag and noting that 90 percent of the market uses something else; while Mac users tout its superior nature. The iPod shuffle is not particularly innovative and is certainly not feature-rich. Now PC users will complain about how lame it is while Mac fans will note that it's really cheap and Apple has 70+ percent of the digital music player market. Personally, I have no desire for an iPod shuffle, but it broadens the iPod line even more and gives folks a more affordable way to join the party. Comparisons of the iPod to the Walkman have come up often, but I don't recall the Walkman costing $300. $99 is an incredible price and everyone predicts they'll sell a few tons of these things. Of course, everyone said they wouldn't sell any iPod minis and those sold incredible numbers, so now I'm slightly wary.

Apple is good at surprises. But it's one thing to beat low expectations. It's another to not live up to high ones.

Next time: post-keynote euphoria; free vodka; and does Diet Dr. Pepper really taste more like regular?

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